Read On, Friends!
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Monday, June 1, 2009
The SONY E3 Prediction List (UPDATE)
Well, E3 is happening now, and Jules and I are throwing our two cents into the giant wishing well that is E3 Predictions. He tried his hand at Microsoft and I'm going to bite the bullet and cover the Sony shebang. It won't be long (tomorrow, actually) before we find out if we were right. Feel free to write in the comments section if you want to toss in your two cents as well. (ED's NOTE: Internet Conversion Ratios dictate that our two cents are worth more than yours. Please, keep that in mind.)
First a little background on the way SONY works. Imagine for me everything you want them to do or just plain announce. Now, imagine getting halfway there and being let down. That's how Sony handles it, and that's how I'm going to handle these predictions. And away we go.
UPDATE: You'll see lines like this after every prediction, where I tell you if I think I was right or not. (pro-tip: I'm always right.)
1. Playstation 3 becomes PS3 this year, just like the PSONE and the Slim PS2 before it (just not at this E3):
Have you seen those pics? It's happening. There's just no denying it. The question is, will it happen this week? I would say definitely not. I've been around for a number of system upgrades and new SKUs, and if there is one thing I've learned, it's this: those new SKUs that they simply cannot roll out softly don't get announced until the wells are dry at the retail level. If SONY were to announce a shiny new system, no one would buy the ones still in the stores, losing the company money, and completely defeating the purpose of rebranding the system. And let me assure you, the PS3 needs a rebranding. I guarantee we will get an official announcement this year... but not this week.
UPDATE: Indeterminate/Confirmed This one's hard to confirm since it predicts an announcement outside of the expo proper. However, in that I predicted SONY would be mum on the subject even though all signs point to a legitimate rumor, I'll call this one confirmed... for now.
2. No price cut on the original PlayStation 3
Now this is really where the SONY-never-does-precisely-what-you-want theory comes into mad effect. Every analyst in the history of ever thinks SONY should cut the price of their PS3. So that's exactly what they're not going to do. Oh, they'll announce something similar, sure enough, just like they always have. SONY doesn't do price cuts. They bundle more stuff in, give it a bigger hard drive, and keep the damn price exactly the same. Plus, with a newer system with cheaper parts, I'm sure they'd like to turn a profit for once, or something close to it. I'd love them to prove me wrong. Please.
UPDATE: Confirmed. Oh, look at that. No price cut, even though every financial expert said there would be one. Big fucking surprise.
3. Sony's new PSP is revealed.
This is all but confirmed by SONY as already happening. Also, much like with the PS3, a price point at the same $169.99 as the previous model would fit with SONY's MO. I believe they would actually announce it officially this week because QORE pretty much already did. A video prepped for release E3 week got bumped out a little too early and preempted any exciting announcement at the conference. Also, there really aren't many actual units left in stores at the moment, and at the very least, the ones that are left will move faster than any PS3 would, so there's no danger of announcing themselves out of sales.
UPDATE: Confirmed. Kinda shooting fish in a barrel here, but the question wasn't if it was coming but rather if it would be announced. Since QORE kinda already spilled the beans on this one, I won't brag too much.
4. Actual reason to visit HOME
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Wouldn't that be something?!
UPDATE: Indeterminate. Pretty much the only way this sarcastic bullet-point wasn't going to be labeled indeterminate is if they had a huge game-changing announcement or didn't talk about it at all, and there was no way either one of those were going to happen. So, really, I consider this confirmed.
5. Firmware update for both PS3 and PSP
Usually, when SONY updates it's firmwares, it's piddly little shit that no one really has any aspirations to use. "Oh, I can text chat with eight (8) people at the same time?! No way! I'm never going to use that!" It's about time for a larger, more important update (maybe fucking group-voice-chat?!) and what better time to impress the masses than when you have their attention, whether they want to be paying it or not.
UPDATE: Busted. Maybe, if you consider the PSP update they were talking about. Otherwise, totally wrong on this one. Wait.... if I'm always right... and I got this one wrong... Ow, my head...
6. Death of PS2 (no actual announcement)
Here's a quick release list of upcoming PS2 games: Secret Agent Clank, Ghostbusters, Harry Potter, Ice Age, Transformers, Tiger Woods, Bigs 2, NCAA, Madden, Beatles: Rock Band, Jak & Daxter... aaaaaaaaand, that's about it. Just ported PSP games, dumbed-down current gen ports, and sports titles. You won't hear anything about the death of the PS2 coming from SONY, but then again, you won't be hearing much about the PS2 coming from SONY anyway. Consider this the last you hear about the system in the future tense.
UPDATE: Indeterminate. I would give myself a confirmed on this this one except for two reasons. 1) It's kinda impossible to really say that we know today that a system will be dead by next year, mainly because 2) I wasn't clear on what I meant by dead. Just because you sold a crap-ton of systems, doesn't mean it's lively. It's the cheapest system (console or handheld) still sold new at retail, so of course you're still going to see sales, however, no one is making new dedicated games for it. What would you consider to more accurately signal death: it's unit sales or it's relevance? I could argue both ways, though I was referring in this instance to the latter. Since, however, I was unclear, I'll leave this one in the middle.
7. I swear! Gran Turismo is coming out! For both PSP and PS3! Trust us!
No, really. For certain, they're going to mention it. For certain, if it (by chance) does happen to come out this year, no one will care. Games like Forza have long ago made the wonder of GT obsolete. Oooooh, GT5 looks way better than any game made when it was first announced in 2006! Last year, they couldn't even pinpoint if it was going to make the end of this year. Usually, over a year out, that means it won't. As for the PSP version: it may have been silent for a long time, but it's more likely that a smaller, less expensive version will be able to rush to market by the holidays. And it is way more likely to help the PSP in SONY's big handheld push this year, than Gran Turismo is to help the PS3 in any way, especially with God of War III coming before the next E3.
UPDATE: Confirmed. Both were mentioned, both were... well, whatever. It should also be noted that Microsoft did announce a new Forza as well.
8. Oh, yeah, don't forget about God of War III, etc...
Gameplay, this time.
Oh, and possibly ICO 3 and definitely Twisted Metal are going to hit the PS3 booth if not the press conference. Count this all as one prediction.
UPDATE: Confirmed, confirmed, busted.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Have you gotten an indication of how I think SONY works? Well, we'll find out if I'm wrong tomorrow. And if 1-5, 7 & 8 don't even happen in some capacity... I'm extra right. Can't you see?! I can't lose!!! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Anyway, thanks. And check back tomorrow to see if I was right at all.
UPDATE: So, I was right for the most part, even taking into account the nebulous predictions (still, I'm right on those, too). However, I did learn today that I can be wrong sometimes. However, if you read back a little bit, you can see that in those cases where my predictions are incorrect, this also makes my whole-hog assessment of SONY still accurate. I may have been wrong once or twice, but I still didn't lose! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Still. It was an amazing show for SONY, and it's been a while since I've been able to say that without sarcasm. GG.
Read On, Friends!
First a little background on the way SONY works. Imagine for me everything you want them to do or just plain announce. Now, imagine getting halfway there and being let down. That's how Sony handles it, and that's how I'm going to handle these predictions. And away we go.
UPDATE: You'll see lines like this after every prediction, where I tell you if I think I was right or not. (pro-tip: I'm always right.)
1. Playstation 3 becomes PS3 this year, just like the PSONE and the Slim PS2 before it (just not at this E3):
Have you seen those pics? It's happening. There's just no denying it. The question is, will it happen this week? I would say definitely not. I've been around for a number of system upgrades and new SKUs, and if there is one thing I've learned, it's this: those new SKUs that they simply cannot roll out softly don't get announced until the wells are dry at the retail level. If SONY were to announce a shiny new system, no one would buy the ones still in the stores, losing the company money, and completely defeating the purpose of rebranding the system. And let me assure you, the PS3 needs a rebranding. I guarantee we will get an official announcement this year... but not this week.
UPDATE: Indeterminate/Confirmed This one's hard to confirm since it predicts an announcement outside of the expo proper. However, in that I predicted SONY would be mum on the subject even though all signs point to a legitimate rumor, I'll call this one confirmed... for now.
2. No price cut on the original PlayStation 3
Now this is really where the SONY-never-does-precisely-what-you-want theory comes into mad effect. Every analyst in the history of ever thinks SONY should cut the price of their PS3. So that's exactly what they're not going to do. Oh, they'll announce something similar, sure enough, just like they always have. SONY doesn't do price cuts. They bundle more stuff in, give it a bigger hard drive, and keep the damn price exactly the same. Plus, with a newer system with cheaper parts, I'm sure they'd like to turn a profit for once, or something close to it. I'd love them to prove me wrong. Please.
UPDATE: Confirmed. Oh, look at that. No price cut, even though every financial expert said there would be one. Big fucking surprise.
3. Sony's new PSP is revealed.
This is all but confirmed by SONY as already happening. Also, much like with the PS3, a price point at the same $169.99 as the previous model would fit with SONY's MO. I believe they would actually announce it officially this week because QORE pretty much already did. A video prepped for release E3 week got bumped out a little too early and preempted any exciting announcement at the conference. Also, there really aren't many actual units left in stores at the moment, and at the very least, the ones that are left will move faster than any PS3 would, so there's no danger of announcing themselves out of sales.
UPDATE: Confirmed. Kinda shooting fish in a barrel here, but the question wasn't if it was coming but rather if it would be announced. Since QORE kinda already spilled the beans on this one, I won't brag too much.
4. Actual reason to visit HOME
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Wouldn't that be something?!
UPDATE: Indeterminate. Pretty much the only way this sarcastic bullet-point wasn't going to be labeled indeterminate is if they had a huge game-changing announcement or didn't talk about it at all, and there was no way either one of those were going to happen. So, really, I consider this confirmed.
5. Firmware update for both PS3 and PSP
Usually, when SONY updates it's firmwares, it's piddly little shit that no one really has any aspirations to use. "Oh, I can text chat with eight (8) people at the same time?! No way! I'm never going to use that!" It's about time for a larger, more important update (maybe fucking group-voice-chat?!) and what better time to impress the masses than when you have their attention, whether they want to be paying it or not.
UPDATE: Busted. Maybe, if you consider the PSP update they were talking about. Otherwise, totally wrong on this one. Wait.... if I'm always right... and I got this one wrong... Ow, my head...
6. Death of PS2 (no actual announcement)
Here's a quick release list of upcoming PS2 games: Secret Agent Clank, Ghostbusters, Harry Potter, Ice Age, Transformers, Tiger Woods, Bigs 2, NCAA, Madden, Beatles: Rock Band, Jak & Daxter... aaaaaaaaand, that's about it. Just ported PSP games, dumbed-down current gen ports, and sports titles. You won't hear anything about the death of the PS2 coming from SONY, but then again, you won't be hearing much about the PS2 coming from SONY anyway. Consider this the last you hear about the system in the future tense.
UPDATE: Indeterminate. I would give myself a confirmed on this this one except for two reasons. 1) It's kinda impossible to really say that we know today that a system will be dead by next year, mainly because 2) I wasn't clear on what I meant by dead. Just because you sold a crap-ton of systems, doesn't mean it's lively. It's the cheapest system (console or handheld) still sold new at retail, so of course you're still going to see sales, however, no one is making new dedicated games for it. What would you consider to more accurately signal death: it's unit sales or it's relevance? I could argue both ways, though I was referring in this instance to the latter. Since, however, I was unclear, I'll leave this one in the middle.
7. I swear! Gran Turismo is coming out! For both PSP and PS3! Trust us!
No, really. For certain, they're going to mention it. For certain, if it (by chance) does happen to come out this year, no one will care. Games like Forza have long ago made the wonder of GT obsolete. Oooooh, GT5 looks way better than any game made when it was first announced in 2006! Last year, they couldn't even pinpoint if it was going to make the end of this year. Usually, over a year out, that means it won't. As for the PSP version: it may have been silent for a long time, but it's more likely that a smaller, less expensive version will be able to rush to market by the holidays. And it is way more likely to help the PSP in SONY's big handheld push this year, than Gran Turismo is to help the PS3 in any way, especially with God of War III coming before the next E3.
UPDATE: Confirmed. Both were mentioned, both were... well, whatever. It should also be noted that Microsoft did announce a new Forza as well.
8. Oh, yeah, don't forget about God of War III, etc...
Gameplay, this time.
Oh, and possibly ICO 3 and definitely Twisted Metal are going to hit the PS3 booth if not the press conference. Count this all as one prediction.
UPDATE: Confirmed, confirmed, busted.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Have you gotten an indication of how I think SONY works? Well, we'll find out if I'm wrong tomorrow. And if 1-5, 7 & 8 don't even happen in some capacity... I'm extra right. Can't you see?! I can't lose!!! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Anyway, thanks. And check back tomorrow to see if I was right at all.
UPDATE: So, I was right for the most part, even taking into account the nebulous predictions (still, I'm right on those, too). However, I did learn today that I can be wrong sometimes. However, if you read back a little bit, you can see that in those cases where my predictions are incorrect, this also makes my whole-hog assessment of SONY still accurate. I may have been wrong once or twice, but I still didn't lose! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Still. It was an amazing show for SONY, and it's been a while since I've been able to say that without sarcasm. GG.
Read On, Friends!
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